1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart

Value in Stuttgart: Back VfB Stuttgart 0 in Bundesliga clash with Hoffenheim This Bundesliga fixture has the feel of a game where the away side can avoid defeat and leave with at least a point. The selected bet is VfB Stuttgart 0, an Asian Handicap pick that pays if Stuttgart wins and is pushed back if the match finishes level. Our TipVfB Stuttgart 0 (Asian Handicap), odds 2.19, selection: VfB Stuttgart 0

Match Analysis

Projected scoring rates favour the visitors. Expected goals are 2.597 for Stuttgart and 1.851 for Hoffenheim, which points to an open game with more attacking output from the away side. The match-level projection places an outright away win probability at 54.22 percent, with a draw at 18.49 percent and a home win at 27.29 percent. That combination explains why an Asian Handicap of zero is appealing: Stuttgart are more likely to win than lose, and the handicap protects the stake on a draw by returning it as a push. There is also a strong chance both teams will score, and the projection for total goals prefers the over options, which supports an expectation that this will not be a low-scoring, tight defensive affair.

Why We Like This Bet

The bet offers value because the projection for the Asian Handicap away 0 is substantially higher than the market price. Our projection gives a 72.71 percent chance that the VfB Stuttgart 0 selection will not lose (this equals the chance of an away win plus the chance of a draw), while the market-implied probability sits at 45.66 percent. That gap produces an edge of 0.2705 and an expected value of 0.3723 for the pick at odds of 2.19. In plain terms, you are getting a price that underestimates Stuttgart's chances to at least avoid defeat. The settlement breakdown is useful to keep in mind: if Stuttgart win the bet wins, if it is a draw the stake is returned, and if Hoffenheim win the bet loses. The push element reduces variance compared with a straight away-win single while retaining upside if Stuttgart take the three points.

Key Match Statistics

Expected goals: Hoffenheim 1.851, VfB Stuttgart 2.597Match projection: Away win 54.22 percent, Draw 18.49 percent, Home win 27.29 percentAsian Handicap (Away 0) projection: 72.71 percent chance to avoid lossMarket probability for Away 0: 45.66 percent, edge: 0.2705, expected value: 0.3723Both teams score probability: 78.02 percent, Over 2.5 goals probability: 82.05 percent

Prediction

Prediction

: VfB Stuttgart to avoid defeat. Back VfB Stuttgart 0 (Asian Handicap).